In four days and two rounds, Roland-Garros 2026 has already lost two of its top five women's seeds. Jessica Pegula (No.5) fell in the first round to Kimberly Birrell. Elena Rybakina (No.2), the Australian Open champion from January, followed on Wednesday, upset by Yuliia Starodubtseva in the second round. Two defeats that transform the tournament landscape.
Early upsets are not unprecedented at clay-court Grand Slams. But losing the world numbers 2 and 5 before the third round gives this edition a distinctive flavour. The draw opens up, outsiders sense their chance, and the remaining favourites inherit heightened pressure.
Aryna Sabalenka, the world No. 1, finds herself in an unprecedented position of strength. The Belarusian, still chasing a maiden Paris title, sees her most dangerous rival exit from her half of the draw. Her opening performance, 6-4, 6-2 against Bouzas Maneiro, showed a solid player not yet at full capacity. Paris remains the missing piece in her collection: she owns three Grand Slam titles (two Australian Opens, one US Open) but has never progressed beyond the semi-finals at Roland-Garros.
On the opposite side, Iga Swiatek marches forward with the confidence of a four-time champion. Eight games conceded across two rounds, zero sets dropped: the Pole is setting a pace that few can match on this surface. Rybakina's absence from her half removes a significant obstacle on the road to the final.
Defending champion completes the trio of favourites. The American launched her title defence with authority (6-4, 6-0 against Townsend) and carries the experience of a Paris coronation, a considerable psychological advantage.
Behind this trio, the vacuum created by the early exits breeds opportunity. Elina Svitolina (No.7), in superb form at 31, Jasmine Paolini (No.13), the 2024 finalist, and the inspired Starodubtseva could gatecrash the second week. Women's clay-court tennis remains the most unpredictable on the tour, and Roland-Garros 2026 is proving the point in spectacular fashion.
